Investment Calculator
Explore how an allocation across Iran's major sectors could grow under annual rates you set. The default rates are illustrative assumptions, not forecasts.
Illustrative scenarios · not a forecast
Adjust from $10K to $10M
Sector allocation and annual growth assumption
Edit the growth rate for each sector to test your own scenario, including a negative case.
Total: 100%
Initial Invest
$0.10M
Period
5y
Projected
$0.13M
Return
31.2%
Estimated Profit
$0.03M
5-year growth projection
Portfolio Risk
Portfolio Allocation
Growth Projection
Disclaimer: This calculator applies the annual growth rates shown, which are illustrative assumptions you can change. It does not forecast returns. Actual outcomes depend on entry price, currency, liquidity, sanctions and banking constraints. It is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.
What this calculator is — and what it deliberately is not
The calculator applies an annual growth rate to each sector allocation over the period you choose. The default rates are illustrative assumptions, not forecasts or client results, and you can change them. Use the tool to frame questions about sector mix, currency and risk before a transaction-specific model is built.
Sector growth assumptions
Each sector starts with an illustrative annual rate that you can edit. Actual outcomes in Iran have varied widely by period, entry price and currency, so test several rates rather than relying on one.
Risk weighting
Risk labels (Low / Medium / High) reflect FX, regulatory, and execution risk in combination — not just price volatility. Two sectors with the same CAGR can sit in different risk bands.
What we exclude
The model does not price banking-route friction, sanctions-driven settlement delays or sector-specific licence timing. Those must be assessed for each transaction.
What's included
- Use it to compare sector mixes, not to size individual tickets
- Re-run with lower growth rates to see the downside case
- Pair every output with a treasury and capital-import plan
- Treat the highest-growth output as a hypothesis, not a forecast
Frequently asked questions
How accurate are these projections?+
Directionally useful, not predictive. Historical sector returns in Iran show wide dispersion — actual outcomes depend on entry price, structure, and banking route as much as on sector trend.
Can I use this for a fund LP deck?+
No. The output is illustrative. Investor materials need a transaction-specific model with documented sources, sensitivities and a banking-route analysis.
What currency should I think in?+
Use USD or EUR to compare returns, and rials only for the operating company's local cost base. Model the two layers separately.
Reading a returns model for an Iranian asset without fooling yourself
Nominal returns in Iran can look extraordinary and mean very little. A project earning forty per cent in rial terms in a year of thirty-five per cent inflation and a depreciating currency has produced almost nothing for a euro-denominated investor. Every serious model of an Iranian asset therefore has to be explicit about three things: the currency the cash flows are earned in, the rate at which they can realistically be converted, and the timing of repatriation. This calculator lets you vary sector, horizon and capital, but the discipline below is what makes the output usable.
Indicative return and risk profile by sector, for planning purposes
| Sector | Indicative nominal growth | Principal risk | Currency of revenue |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrochemicals | 8 – 12% | Export-route and feedstock pricing | Mostly hard currency |
| Mining and metals | 10 – 15% | Infrastructure and permitting | Mixed |
| ICT and digital | 20 – 30% | Regulatory and payment rails | Rial |
| Renewables | 12 – 18% | PPA tariff indexation | Rial, partly indexed |
| Consumer goods | 15 – 25% | Purchasing power and inflation | Rial |
| Listed equities (TSE) | Highly variable | Liquidity and FX conversion | Rial |
Indicative planning benchmarks based on our engagement experience; actual timelines vary by sector and file.
Sanity checks before you present a number
- State whether the return is nominal rial, real rial, or euro or dollar equivalent
- Model at least two FX paths, including a materially weaker rial
- Include repatriation timing, not only repatriation possibility, in the cash flow
- Apply the corporate tax rate and any free-zone exemption explicitly rather than netting it out
- Stress the model for a six-month delay in licensing — it is the most common single variance
- Compare against a regional benchmark so the risk premium is visible, not implied
Frequently asked questions
Why do Iranian returns look so high?
Because they are usually quoted in rial and inflation has run in double digits for years. Converting to a hard currency and deducting inflation typically removes most of the headline figure, which is why every model here should be restated in the investor's own currency.
Can profits be repatriated from Iran?
Investments registered under FIPPA carry a statutory right to transfer profits and capital abroad, subject to central bank foreign-currency availability. The practical constraint is timing and the rate applied, not the legal right, so model a delay rather than a denial.
What tax rate should we assume?
A twenty-five per cent corporate income tax rate is the mainland baseline, with long-standing exemptions available in the free zones. Withholding and municipal levies apply separately depending on the structure and should be modelled as line items.
Which exchange rate belongs in the model?
Use the NIMA reference rate for flows that will clear officially and the open market rate for domestic costs, and run a sensitivity on both. Single-rate models are the main reason first-year forecasts miss.