Investment Calculator
Estimate your potential returns across Iran's major investment sectors. Adjust your allocation to see real-time projections based on current market trends.
Projection model · indicative only
Adjust from $10K to $10M
Total: 100%
Initial Invest
$0.10M
Period
5y
Projected
$0.25M
Return
146.2%
Estimated Profit
$0.15M
5-year growth projection
Portfolio Risk
Portfolio Allocation
Growth Projection
Disclaimer: This calculator provides estimates based on historical growth rates and market trends. Actual returns may vary based on market conditions, economic factors, and investment performance. These projections are for educational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. Please consult with our investment advisors for personalized guidance.
What this calculator is — and what it deliberately is not
The projections combine sector-level CAGR assumptions drawn from Tehran Stock Exchange historicals, World Bank sector data, and OIETAI-licensed FDI tickets. They are designed to frame portfolio allocation discussions — not to substitute for an underwriting model on a specific transaction.
Sector growth bands
Each sector's CAGR is anchored to a 10-year historical band — petrochemicals to listed real returns, ICT to private-round revenue growth, mining to processed-metal export values.
Risk weighting
Risk labels (Low / Medium / High) reflect FX, regulatory, and execution risk in combination — not just price volatility. Two sectors with the same CAGR can sit in different risk bands.
What we exclude
The model does not price banking-route friction, sanctions-driven settlement delays, or sector-specific licence timing. Those are deal-level inputs handled inside a written investment memorandum.
What's included
- Use it to compare sector mixes, not to size individual tickets
- Re-run quarterly — Iranian sector betas shift faster than DM equivalents
- Pair every output with a treasury and capital-import plan
- Treat the highest-growth output as a hypothesis, not a forecast
Frequently asked questions
How accurate are these projections?+
Directionally useful, not predictive. Historical sector returns in Iran show wide dispersion — actual outcomes depend on entry price, structure, and banking route as much as on sector trend.
Can I use this for a fund LP deck?+
Not as-is. We provide a bespoke underwriting model with documented sources, sensitivities, and a banking-route appendix for any mandate above USD 5M.
What currency should I think in?+
USD or EUR for IRR comparison; IRR (Iranian rial) only for the operating company's local cost base. We always model both layers separately.
Reading a returns model for an Iranian asset without fooling yourself
Nominal returns in Iran can look extraordinary and mean very little. A project earning forty per cent in rial terms in a year of thirty-five per cent inflation and a depreciating currency has produced almost nothing for a euro-denominated investor. Every serious model of an Iranian asset therefore has to be explicit about three things: the currency the cash flows are earned in, the rate at which they can realistically be converted, and the timing of repatriation. This calculator lets you vary sector, horizon and capital, but the discipline below is what makes the output usable.
Indicative return and risk profile by sector, for planning purposes
| Sector | Indicative nominal growth | Principal risk | Currency of revenue |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrochemicals | 8 – 12% | Export-route and feedstock pricing | Mostly hard currency |
| Mining and metals | 10 – 15% | Infrastructure and permitting | Mixed |
| ICT and digital | 20 – 30% | Regulatory and payment rails | Rial |
| Renewables | 12 – 18% | PPA tariff indexation | Rial, partly indexed |
| Consumer goods | 15 – 25% | Purchasing power and inflation | Rial |
| Listed equities (TSE) | Highly variable | Liquidity and FX conversion | Rial |
Indicative planning benchmarks based on our engagement experience; actual timelines vary by sector and file.
Sanity checks before you present a number
- State whether the return is nominal rial, real rial, or euro or dollar equivalent
- Model at least two FX paths, including a materially weaker rial
- Include repatriation timing, not only repatriation possibility, in the cash flow
- Apply the corporate tax rate and any free-zone exemption explicitly rather than netting it out
- Stress the model for a six-month delay in licensing — it is the most common single variance
- Compare against a regional benchmark so the risk premium is visible, not implied
Frequently asked questions
Why do Iranian returns look so high?
Because they are usually quoted in rial and inflation has run in double digits for years. Converting to a hard currency and deducting inflation typically removes most of the headline figure, which is why every model here should be restated in the investor's own currency.
Can profits be repatriated from Iran?
Investments registered under FIPPA carry a statutory right to transfer profits and capital abroad, subject to central bank foreign-currency availability. The practical constraint is timing and the rate applied, not the legal right, so model a delay rather than a denial.
What tax rate should we assume?
A twenty-five per cent corporate income tax rate is the mainland baseline, with long-standing exemptions available in the free zones. Withholding and municipal levies apply separately depending on the structure and should be modelled as line items.
Which exchange rate belongs in the model?
Use the NIMA reference rate for flows that will clear officially and the open market rate for domestic costs, and run a sensitivity on both. Single-rate models are the main reason first-year forecasts miss.