Today it is not clear whether Trump is ready to confirm Iran’s commitment to the nuclear deal or he would just shatter it by not approving and giving it in to hands of the US congress. While his possible disapproval may be considered as a disaster, his possible approval could not be taken as so positive since he simply can refuse to accept it the next time. However, there is one thing to be sure about his behavior which is, to say, he is either really disordered at making decisions and dealing with others, or he wants to keep himself absolutely unpredictable.
Since the beginning of his term as the US president, he has not been capable of accomplishing none of his promises or denouncements no matter it was about Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton, republicans, congress, China, Mexico or even North Korea. Thus, there has been a wide gap between his speech and his actions, implying that either he has been disabled or he simply wants to cry out without engaging in real action, that in both cases, there is a very low possibility that he wants to dismantle JCPOA and becoming able to carry it out at the same time.
Moreover, the congress, which was a strong opponent of the nuclear deal against Obama, has not shown any concord with the way of Donald Trump, probably not so eager to endanger reputation of the United States by negating its own international commitments and losing the credibility of the U.S. against possible nuclear negotiations with North Korea, taking into account the current clash between Mr. Trump and republicans noticing that they have not supported him within a single case yet. Even military officials and hardliners such as James Mattis have opined the US may be better stay at the deal.
The overall picture is not so clear and its obscurity may not change soon. Even if Trump approves the deal this time, there will be another three months of uncertainty to the next time. Nevertheless, there is no sign of any support to annulling the nuclear deal except some countries in the region. Europeans including the UK have strongly insisted on their commitment to their word on the deal along with Russia and China. In the US, democrats mostly support the deal. Republicans are in favor of taking harder stance against Iran but not likely to back the way of Trump’s denouncement.
The uncertainty around so called nuclear accord is here to stay for long, but considering the wise play of Iran and other international players, it is very unlikely that Trump can really explode the deal and return the situation to what was before JCPOA, although he seems to continue his way of bullying, threatening and staying unpredictable.
