Calling the 11th government's function in oil diplomacy "very successful," Assali said Iran had already announced will go along any gesture for market stabilization.
He said, "Since oil income is flown to Iranian economy from several channels, obviously when the market feels government income will rise on oil price increase or that more forex will be available, hopes on the future will grow."
The energy economy expert referred to recent OPEC agreement's impact on the stock and capital market and said, "Since, oil has since the beginning emerged as a financial asset, its price changes indicate information on other financial assets. However, the connection between the OPEC price and the capital market is complicated and one cannot explicitly speak of its impact on the market."
He added that at the time of price hike and when intending to spend its revenues, government might pay off part of its debts to the contractors and certain stock companies, thus helping the most profitable companies and push up of stock indexes.
To a question on which industries would the oil price increase affect the most, Assali, who is member of the Board of Instructors of the Energy Studies Institute, said the effects of such an increase is more on the industries so close to energy or oil and gas and work mostly on government income.
Also on the impact of cut in the OPEC crude supply on the world financial markets, Assali said principally, the world major markets in the US and Europe have been in the best condition in the past couple of years and dollar appreciated compared to the past years. "On the one hand, there will be possibility that the interest rate in the US and the UK will grow; so, the international exchanges will be affected most by the OPEC accord."
He announced that since foreign companies are not present in Iran's capital market, their change will not have much direct impact on our capital market. "Due to the same reason, sometimes the stock indices worldwide go high but here in our stock market they rally low or vice-versa."
To a question, how he considered the prospect of the oil market in general, Assali said, "Since considerable amount of oil is stored in the inventories of the developed states, which is more than 300 million barrels, oil prices will not be too much high as long as the reserves of the inventories have not been reduced."
The scholar said, "On the one hand, if oil price nears about 60 dollars, unconventional oil production like shale oil by the US , North America and Canada will increase. So such an increase in the supply will in the long-run adjust the prices. "
However, he assured that oil price will not be so high to leave adverse impact on the economic growth of such regions as the US and Europe. "So, such increase in current prices will be both to the benefit of the consumer and OPEC producers and Russia because will encourage movement in the international companies' energy."
He opined that the point of importance is countries' consensus that they were all subject to high economic pressure due to price decline and that they should get rid of the problem.
"I suppose major oil producers, especially Saudi Arabia, felt that they cannot continue producing oil to the level of 10.7 million barrels per day, i.e. equal to the last year level. So, they were willing to look for an opportunity to increase their capacity and on the OPEC decision, they could somehow make their production cut official."
"On the one hand, they naturally welcomed the supply cut because it was to the benefit of other OPEC members; of course, the role of Iran and Iraq in the decision was highly important and influential."
Asked to what extent the OPEC states will stay committed to its decision, he said OPEC comprises a group of independent states who have got together on their profits and based on the same interests, they decided to cut their production. Meanwhile, a committee, comprising ministers, used to monitor major OPEC decisions."
Assali said, "OPEC decisions are made on consensus basis and 13 members of it should enforce them. Of course, based on statistics available, the countries have honored some 65 percent of the quota system and Iran has always showed adherence to the system."
The official provided assurance that regarding recent OPEC decision for 4.5 percent cut in the production, OPEC members' revenue will considerably increase due to oil price hike. "So, so they benefit too much and the profit all the members will gain will depend on observation of the said conditions."
