Now that the Iranian economy is being ready to integrate with international environment and to experience a jump on absorbing international investment resources available, one significant issue shall not be neglected and that is many economists concur with the view that long-term economic trends should be in line with demographics and several debates bring up concepts of demographics as the most effective force of social and political transformations. Nonetheless, it may not be ignored that economics basically consist of supply and demand and demographics have a direct impact on both sides: Demand for goods and services and supply of workforce.
Current demographic position of Iran is a complicated one as on one hand, the most stake of population goes to young people in their working ages, and on the other hand the steep collapse of fertility rate and population growth implies a different outlook for coming decades. Thus, currently we are living in an opportunity window in which, by utilizing the most of working age population, we can stimulate economic growth to the levels not seen before. As people have most of their available resources in their working age, demand for goods and services could also be encouraged by having those people been employed in productive industries with suitable remuneration.
Now more than 70% of Iranian people are between 15 to 64 years, normally called active population, implying the existence of Demographic Window, which stays in place until 1430s by most probable projections of current and future population trends. The steep decline in fertility and population growth in Iran is a unique case with lots of explanations and suggestions most of them are partially true. However, without an application of magic, one certain outcome is that reproduction practices of 1970s and 1980s will not resurge in foreseeable future, and as a result current Demographic Window is definitely singular.
The core issue is how economics could make use of this opportunity. Most developed nations are noticing their working age population decline enforcing intermittent economic recessions in spite of mass execution of easing policies. Developing nations are in better shape but not as good as it should. East Asian countries which have compensated the weak contribution of western world in recent decades are also entering the end phase of their demographic window, as China for example peaks its workforce population before 2020.
Nonetheless, if one expects a prosperous consumer market in the future, it is not anything about saturated and overdeveloped United States, Europe, or even East Asia, but somewhere around Middle East and Africa: Besides Iran itself, countries with high rates of population growth and great number of working age people along with unutilized economic fundamentals and underdeveloped infrastructures are most viable markets for the future.
